研报 | 预估2025年折叠手机出货量将达1,980万支，渗透率约1.6%

Core Insights - The article discusses the projected growth and market dynamics of foldable smartphones, highlighting a forecasted shipment of 19.8 million units by 2025, maintaining a penetration rate of approximately 1.6% compared to 2024 [1] - Despite a slowdown in growth compared to previous years, advancements in technology and price reductions are making foldable phones a focal point in the mid-to-high-end market, with manufacturers preparing for a potential market explosion in 2026 [1][6] Group 1: Market Leaders and Competitors - Samsung remains the leader in the foldable smartphone market, recently launching the Galaxy Z Fold7 with significant improvements in hinge structure, crease control, and weight [4] - Huawei is expected to maintain strong performance in the Chinese market, with a global market share of 34.3% in 2025, while brands like Honor and Lenovo are projected to increase their market shares significantly [5] - Xiaomi is also making strides in the lightweight foldable market, with an expected market share growth from 3.0% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2025 [5] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Market Challenges - Despite improvements in technology and product variety, global sales growth of foldable phones remains moderate due to consumer hesitance regarding crease visibility, durability, and pricing, particularly among non-brand loyal users [5] - The current market positioning of foldable phones is seen as "high-end experimental products," as most users prefer high-cost-performance traditional flagship models [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - A potential turning point for the foldable smartphone market may occur in 2026 with Apple's anticipated launch of its first foldable phone, which could significantly increase consumer interest and acceptance [6] - Apple's strategy is expected to focus on stability and ecosystem integration, enhancing user experience through optimized iOS applications and hardware [6] - Overall, foldable smartphones are evolving from mere brand innovation showcases to becoming a core product line, with comprehensive planning across entry-level to flagship models [6]