实际汇率三年累贬15%，人民币资产和外汇资产的配置选择题

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 20th anniversary of the "7·21" exchange rate reform, highlighting the significant changes in the RMB exchange rate since 1994, including a nearly 60% appreciation from 2005 to early 2022, followed by a depreciation of over 15% since 2022, indicating a deviation from reasonable valuation [1][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate has shown a trend of appreciation until 2022, but has since weakened significantly, reaching its lowest level in nearly a decade by March 2025 [1][4]. - The depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a combination of nominal effective exchange rate decline and a decrease in China's price level relative to trade partners, with the latter accounting for two-thirds of the decline [5][6]. - Despite a record trade surplus, the actual depreciation of the RMB has not been offset, indicating that lower prices have not translated into expected competitiveness in international markets [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Recommendations - Demand insufficiency is identified as the primary reason for the RMB's depreciation, exacerbated by price stickiness and market coordination failures [6][7]. - The article notes that while economic growth has shown resilience, investment growth has slowed, particularly in real estate, which has seen a significant decline [8][9]. - CF40 suggests that expanding domestic demand should be the core focus of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year, with fiscal spending being a critical lever to stimulate total demand [10][11]. - The projected fiscal budget for 2025 indicates a significant increase in public spending, which could effectively boost total demand if achieved [10][11]. - Urban renewal is highlighted as a suitable area for government-led public investment to stimulate economic activity [12].