读研报 | 站稳3500点后，关于增量资金的观察

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the potential for the index to break upward after stabilizing above 3500 points, but this requires continuous injection of incremental capital in the absence of significant changes in policy and fundamentals [2] Group 1: Incremental Capital Status - After stabilizing above 3500 points, there is an observation that a positive feedback mechanism for incremental capital may be forming, as indicated by a report from China Merchants Securities [3] - The report highlights that significant market trends rely on a classic positive feedback loop of "floating profits leading to increased positions, which drives further market rises" [3] - To establish this positive feedback mechanism, the index must break through key resistance levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's resistance at approximately 3450 points and the WIND All A Index at around 5400 points [3] Group 2: Market Highs and Profitability - The concept of "effectively standing above the loss recovery resistance level" can be interpreted as reaching new highs and demonstrating clear profitability effects [4] - Huachuang Securities noted that the Shanghai Composite Index's previous high of 3674 points did not create significant selling pressure, as the trading volume on that day was 3.5 trillion [4] - The WIND All A Equal Weight Index has consistently reached new historical highs, surpassing the previous high of 17142 points, indicating a sustained profitability effect in the market [4] Group 3: Scale and Volume of Incremental Capital - Guolian Minsheng Securities reported that without strong fundamental support, the core reason for trend-driven markets in 2015 and 2021 was the presence of stable incremental capital at a scale of over one trillion [6] - Current market inflows from margin trading, ETFs, public active equity, and foreign capital are relatively slow, with no observation of a trillion-level incremental capital source [6] - Despite insurance capital being a key driver of the current market rise, the scale of new capital entering the market is still less than in 2015 and 2021 [6] Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - The relationship between incremental capital and market performance often leads to a "chicken or egg" dilemma, where rising indices attract more capital, creating a cycle that is difficult for ordinary investors to predict [7] - A more pragmatic focus for investors may be on preparing sufficient stock selections if incremental capital continues to flow and the market remains active [8]