研客专栏 | 丙烯：首日全线大涨，后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The listing of propylene futures on July 22 has introduced a new derivative product to the energy and chemical sector, enhancing risk management tools for related enterprises and filling gaps in the C3 industrial chain [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, all seven listed propylene futures contracts surged over 3%, with the main contract PL2601 closing up by 4.14% [4][7]. - The initial listing price for the seven contracts was set at 6350 CNY/ton, slightly below the prevailing spot price of 6375 CNY/ton in Shandong [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic propylene production capacity has rapidly expanded in recent years, primarily driven by PDH and steam cracking processes, leading to a reduced import dependency of approximately 3.6% [4]. - While polypropylene remains the dominant demand driver, its market share is decreasing, with emerging downstream products like epoxy propylene and acrylonitrile experiencing faster growth [4]. - Overall inventory pressure is manageable due to increased integration of production facilities, although the supply-demand balance is expected to stabilize in the long term [4][24]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The market outlook suggests several trading strategies: 1. Consider narrowing the price spread between PP2601 and PL2601 when prices are high, driven by anticipated increases in propylene production capacity exceeding 1.9 million tons in Q3 [25]. 2. Look for opportunities to go long on PDH profits, particularly as propane imports face tariff risks [27]. 3. Monitor for potential price corrections to consider buying PL at lower levels, as current prices are still relatively low [28]. Group 4: Contract Specifications - Propylene futures contracts have a trading unit of 20 tons per contract, with a minimum price fluctuation of 1 CNY/ton and a daily price limit of ±7% [12][15]. - The margin requirement for trading these contracts is set at 8%, with a trading fee of 0.01% of the transaction amount [13][12]. Group 5: Delivery and Storage - The designated delivery regions for propylene futures include several provinces, with specific price differentials applied based on location [19]. - Delivery fees are standardized at 0.5 CNY/ton, and storage fees at designated warehouses are set at 5 CNY/ton per day [20][19]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The future market for propylene is expected to be influenced by the dynamics of upstream and downstream profit distribution, with a focus on the limited production of propylene polymerization [24].