【广发宏观陈嘉荔】置身变奏曲，直面多线索：2025年中期海外环境展望

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.3% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.9% in the previous year, marking the lowest level in 17 years excluding recession years [1][11] - Factors contributing to this slowdown include rising trade policy uncertainties due to de-globalization, tightening financial conditions in some countries, and a balanced labor market in the US and Europe leading to a decrease in wage growth [1][11] Inflation Trends - Major economies are experiencing relatively high and sticky inflation rates, with June core CPI year-on-year rates at 2.9% for the US, 2.3% for the Eurozone, and 3.4% for Japan [2][15] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates four times this year, while the Federal Reserve remains in a pause phase regarding rate cuts [2][16] Currency Market Dynamics - The global currency market is characterized by high risk-free interest rates and a divergence between the US dollar and non-US currencies, with the dollar index declining by 9.7% year-to-date as of July 21 [3][18] - Non-US currencies have generally appreciated, with notable increases of 12.9% for the Euro and 6.6% for the Japanese Yen [3][18] Asset Performance - The performance of global assets reflects expectations of preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and fiscal expansion in Europe, with the Nasdaq and DAX indices rising by 8.6% and 22.1% respectively [3][20] - Gold prices have increased by 29.2% due to high deficit rates in Western economies and geopolitical factors [3][20] Economic Growth Projections - For the second half of 2025, the US GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.5%, with quarterly growth rates of 2.1%, 0.7%, and 1.2% [4][24] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in the second half, while Japan's GDP growth is projected to decline to 0.5% [4][27] Inflation Forecasts - Inflation rates are expected to diverge among major economies, with US core CPI projected to rise from 2.9% to 3.3% by the fourth quarter, while Eurozone inflation is expected to decrease to around 1.9% [5][29] - Japan's inflation is likely to remain above 2%, driven by labor shortages and rising wages [5][30] Monetary Policy Challenges - Central banks face the dual challenge of balancing inflation and growth, with the Federal Reserve expected to initiate rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025 [6][32] - The ECB is anticipated to lower rates further, while the Bank of Japan may also consider a rate hike depending on economic conditions [6][34] Impact of US Legislation - The "Beautiful America Act" is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034, while tariffs are expected to generate about $2.8 trillion in revenue [7][35] - The act is estimated to boost US GDP by an average of 0.5% over the next decade, with potential for higher growth if tax reforms are successful [7][35] Dollar Index Trends - The dollar is expected to weaken in the medium term due to tariff impacts and changing global supply chains, with potential for short-term rebounds based on economic data or geopolitical events [8][40] - A weaker dollar could benefit US companies with significant overseas revenue, as approximately 41% of S&P 500 companies' income comes from international markets [8][44] Corporate Earnings Outlook - The weakening dollar is likely to enhance the profitability of US companies with substantial foreign earnings, contributing approximately 0.4-0.5 percentage points to overall EPS for each percentage point of dollar depreciation [8][44] - The overall earnings growth for US companies is expected to outpace economic growth in the second half of 2025, driven by favorable currency effects and supportive fiscal policies [8][46]