国泰海通证券研究·2025-07-22 09:54Core Viewpoint - The recovery in industrial and automotive demand is expected to improve wafer foundry capacity utilization, with leading fabs likely to achieve performance growth due to the established trend of localized production [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - As downstream industries in industrial and automotive sectors begin to replenish inventory, demand for BCD Analog is anticipated to grow, leading to an expected increase in wafer foundry capacity utilization in Q2 and the second half of the year [1]. - According to TrendForce, the capacity utilization rate for mature processes is projected to slightly increase to over 75% as terminal markets such as smartphones, PCs, and servers are expected to recover year-on-year growth by 2025 [1]. - In Q1, SMIC reported a 4.1% increase in overall capacity utilization, reaching over 90% for both 8-inch and 12-inch wafers, indicating a positive trend in capacity utilization [1]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Local Production Trends - SMIC is expected to increase its 12-inch wafer capacity by approximately 50,000 pieces annually, with capital expenditure for 2025 projected to remain around $7.5 billion, consistent with the previous year [2]. - Advanced packaging capacity, led by fabs, is becoming scarce, as advanced packaging relies on chip manufacturing capabilities that are the strong suit of fabs rather than traditional packaging factories [2]. - The integration of advanced packaging services into fabs is creating ecological barriers, as high-performance chip design and packaging are becoming increasingly intertwined [2].