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宋雪涛:港股的新支点
雪涛宏观笔记·2025-07-22 12:55

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a structural bull market driven by various factors, including geopolitical risk reduction, a weak dollar environment, liquidity support from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and increased southbound capital inflows [2][28][29]. Group 2 - Geopolitical risk reduction has improved market risk appetite, benefiting the Hong Kong stock market, which is known for its volatility and trading opportunities [5]. - The weak dollar environment has supported the stability of the Hong Kong stock market, with the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.2% and 1.5% respectively since early April [8]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's significant liquidity injection has reinforced market rebound momentum, with a total liquidity injection of 129.4 billion HKD in a single month, the second-highest in a decade [12]. - Southbound capital, particularly from insurance funds, has become a strong stabilizing force for the Hong Kong stock market, with cumulative net purchases reaching 14.5 trillion HKD, 2.9 times that of the same period last year [17]. Group 3 - From an industry perspective, southbound capital shows a preference for the financial sector, while other funds have diverse holdings across various sectors, including technology and consumer goods [21]. - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations of continued support from the RMB and southbound capital, despite potential challenges from U.S.-China relations and Fed interest rate policies [29][36]. Group 4 - The article anticipates a third round of revaluation for RMB assets, driven by improved consumer confidence and the potential for reduced country risk premium in the Hong Kong stock market [40].