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【电新】雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工,水电设备“双寡头”有望受益——碳中和领域动态追踪(一百六十一)(殷中枢/郝骞)
光大证券研究·2025-07-22 08:38

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project in Tibet, highlighting its significance in China's energy landscape and the expected contributions from leading domestic equipment manufacturers [3][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially started on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and a total installed capacity of 60 to 81 million kilowatts [3][4]. - The project will consist of five tiered power stations and is expected to generate an annual electricity output of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to three Three Gorges power stations [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The conventional hydropower equipment industry in China is characterized by a "dual oligopoly" market structure, with Dongfang Electric holding a 45% market share in conventional hydropower and 41.6% in pumped storage by 2024, while Harbin Electric accounts for 50% of the domestic large hydropower installed capacity [5]. - The project is anticipated to provide significant orders to domestic manufacturers, particularly Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, as the technology for hydropower equipment becomes increasingly mature [5]. Group 3: Order Growth and Financial Outlook - In 2024, Dongfang Electric achieved new effective orders of 101.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.88%, reaching a historical high of 152.61 billion yuan in hand orders by the end of 2024 [6]. - Harbin Electric reported a formal contract signing amount of 56.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 30.55%, and a significant increase in new orders for various power equipment, including a 64.29% rise in hydropower equipment orders [6].