中美夹缝中，越南踩着钢丝冲刺

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is experiencing significant economic growth, with a GDP growth rate of 7.52% in the first half of 2025, the highest in 15 years, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and Chinese enterprises seeking opportunities in the region [3][4][6]. Economic Growth and Investment - Vietnam's FDI reached approximately $11.72 billion in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.1% increase year-on-year, the highest amount for this period from 2021 to 2025 [3][4]. - The number of newly registered Chinese enterprises in Vietnam increased by over 30% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with expectations to exceed 1,500 by the end of the year [3][4]. Trade Dynamics - Vietnam has become a significant beneficiary of the US-China trade tensions, acting as an intermediary in trade between the two nations [4][6]. - In 2021, Vietnam imported $109.9 billion from China, accounting for about 33% of its total imports, while exports to the US reached $96.29 billion, a 24.9% increase year-on-year [4][6]. Structural Reforms - Vietnam is undergoing extensive reforms to combat corruption and enhance economic vitality, including a significant administrative restructuring that reduced the number of provinces and districts [5][6]. Consumer Market Dynamics - Vietnam's consumer market is characterized by a young population, with an average age of 32.5 years, and a significant proportion of the population under 25 years old, driving consumption [18][20]. - The retail sales growth rate reached 11.1% in April 2025, with consumption accounting for approximately 63.16% of GDP in 2023, compared to 53.1% in China [18][19][20]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite its growth, Vietnam faces challenges in maintaining economic independence while navigating its role as a trade intermediary [29][30]. - The country is striving to balance its economic relationships with major powers while enhancing its domestic industrial capabilities [30][31]. Localization Strategy - Foreign companies are required to localize their operations in Vietnam to succeed, as evidenced by the government's push for compliance and registration of foreign e-commerce platforms [34][35]. - Haier's successful localization strategy in Vietnam serves as a model for other companies looking to penetrate the market [35][36]. Industrial Development - Vietnam's manufacturing sector is primarily focused on assembly and low-value-added processes, limiting its ability to transition to higher-end manufacturing [39][40]. - The country is experiencing a gradual shift towards a more balanced industrial structure, with a decrease in the primary sector's share and an increase in the secondary and tertiary sectors [44].