中金 | 软饮料系列报告四——椰子水新兴成长赛道

Core Viewpoint - The coconut water industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by increasing consumer health awareness and the popularity of coconut-flavored products, particularly in China, where the market is expected to reach $1.1 billion by 2024 with a CAGR of 60.8% over the past five years [3][13]. Industry Growth Prospects - The coconut water market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of $1.1 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 60.8% from $0.1 billion in 2019 [3][13]. - Per capita consumption of coconut water in China is only 0.1 liters per person, significantly lower than in the US (1.1 liters) and Thailand (0.2 liters), indicating potential for growth [16][18]. - The supply and demand dynamics are expected to drive continued rapid growth in the coconut water industry in China [18]. Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by a CR5 of 43.4%, with IFBH holding a leading market share of 33.9%, indicating a fragmented competitive landscape with many emerging brands [3][29]. - Coconut water brands can be categorized into four types: international brands, local brands, emerging brands, and new retail brands, with the market still evolving [29]. Key Competitive Factors - Supply chain management, brand strength, and price-to-quality ratio are identified as critical competitive factors in the coconut water industry [4][34]. - The quality of coconut water is highly dependent on the quality of raw materials, which are primarily imported, making supply chain efficiency crucial [4][35]. - Strong brand recognition is essential due to the high level of product homogeneity, with consumers relying heavily on brand trust [4][48]. Consumer Trends - There is a growing consumer preference for natural and healthy beverages, with coconut water being favored for its low sugar and calorie content, as well as its rich electrolyte profile [21][24]. - The target consumer base is expanding beyond young urban consumers and fitness enthusiasts to include middle-aged individuals and families, indicating a broader market potential [24][26]. Supply Side Developments - The market is seeing increased participation from multiple brands, with traditional and new brands entering the space, enhancing market cultivation [27]. - The supply chain is becoming more resilient through diversified sourcing strategies to mitigate risks associated with climate impacts on raw material supply [28][39]. - Innovations in processing and packaging technologies are improving product quality and efficiency, which is vital for market expansion [28][46]. Pricing and Value Proposition - The average price of coconut water has decreased significantly, with a 40% drop from 2.51 yuan per 100ml in 2018 to 1.49 yuan in 2024, making high price-to-quality brands more appealing to consumers [52][53]. - Brands are increasingly focusing on product innovation and functional benefits to enhance product value and appeal to health-conscious consumers [55][56].