谷歌Q2财报前瞻：AI难撼搜索业务，反垄断裁决存不确定性，资本支出是否上调成看点

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are optimistic about Google's Q2 earnings report, expecting revenue to exceed $90 billion, driven by strong search business resilience and AI features boosting query volume [1][4][7]. Financial Performance Expectations - Market expectations for Google's Q2 revenue are around $80 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share projected at $2.18, up 15% [2][7]. - Citigroup predicts revenue could reach $93.7 billion, with YouTube ad revenue expected to grow 10% to $9.529 billion [7]. - Evercore forecasts even higher, estimating Q2 revenue at $95 billion, with operating profit at $31.5 billion and earnings per share at $2.21, surpassing market expectations [7][4]. Search Business Resilience - Google's search revenue is projected to grow 8.8% to $52.754 billion, maintaining its status as a core revenue driver [10][12]. - AI Overviews feature has increased query volume by over 10%, with monthly active users exceeding 1.5 billion [10]. - 85% of surveyed users consider Google their primary search engine, with 68% finding Google's AI features more effective than traditional search [12][14]. Cloud Business Outlook - Evercore anticipates Q2 cloud revenue of $13.1 billion, a 26.8% year-over-year increase, despite GPU supply constraints [16]. - Citigroup expects cloud revenue to grow 27%, emphasizing the need for continued infrastructure investment to meet AI service demand [16]. YouTube and Advertising Insights - YouTube's share of TV streaming viewing reached a record 12.8%, significantly outpacing competitors [16]. - Evercore projects YouTube revenue growth of 10%, aided by new GenAI features that enhance user engagement [17]. - Advertising budgets are showing moderate year-over-year increases, with a shift towards channels perceived as resilient to macroeconomic pressures [17]. Stock Valuation and Market Sentiment - Evercore sets a target price of $205 for Google, indicating the stock is undervalued at $191, with a reasonable P/E ratio forecasted for 2026 [17]. - Analysts view Google as a top pick among large-cap internet stocks based on deep value analysis [17][18]. Legal and Regulatory Risks - Ongoing antitrust litigation poses significant uncertainty, with potential severe remedies suggested by the U.S. Department of Justice [18][19]. - The uncertainty surrounding the legal outcomes is seen as a drag on stock performance [19].