国内高频 | BDI运价创年内新高（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in industrial production, construction activity, and freight volume, indicating a slight recovery in industrial production and construction, while highlighting the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and fluctuations in freight metrics [2][5][53]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown a slight recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [2][5]. - The chemical production chain has seen improvements, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 3.3 percentage points to -2.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 6%, respectively [2][17]. - The automotive sector has also experienced improvements, with semi-steel tire operating rates up by 3.2 percentage points to -3.1% [2][17]. Group 2: Construction Activity - Construction activity has shown signs of recovery, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [2][29]. - Cement shipment rates have significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points to -0.6% [2][29]. - Despite a slight decline in asphalt operating rates, they remain higher than the same period last year, indicating overall stability in construction activity [2][29]. Group 3: Freight Volume and Demand - Real estate transactions remain low, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [2][53]. - Freight volume has seen a recovery, with port cargo throughput and container throughput increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 8% and 4.4 percentage points to 5.2%, respectively [2][65]. - The migration scale index has increased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year to 17.4%, indicating stronger movement of people [2][77]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices declining by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.0% respectively, while egg prices have slightly increased by 0.1% [3][107]. - Industrial product prices have generally risen, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 1.0% [3][119]. - The energy and chemical price index rose by 0.9%, and the metal price index also increased by 1.0% [3][119].