国泰海通｜建材：中吉乌铁路：一锹水泥一里轨

Core Viewpoint - The geographical advantage of "three mountains surrounding two basins" allows Xinjiang's cement prices to maintain better stability than the national average, while the commencement of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is expected to boost local cement demand in both Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Xinjiang's investment growth is projected to increase by 13.0% in the first half of 2025, with cement production reaching 19.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, outperforming the national growth rate by 9.7 percentage points [3]. - The supply side benefits from Xinjiang's unique geographical features, leading to significantly lower cross-regional cement flow compared to other areas, and the implementation of staggered production schedules is more effective than the national average [3]. - The cement price in southern Xinjiang's Aksu region is expected to remain at 470 RMB per ton in 2024, while prices in East China fluctuate between 350-430 RMB per ton [3]. Group 2: Impact of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway - The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which has been in planning for nearly 30 years, has officially begun, with the most challenging segment in Kyrgyzstan starting first [3]. - The total cement demand from the Kyrgyz segment and the Chinese segment of the railway is estimated to be between 4.54 million and 6.40 million tons, translating to an annualized demand of 810,000 to 1.14 million tons [3]. - The railway's construction is expected to benefit both local Kyrgyz cement production and Xinjiang's cement industry, enhancing the capacity utilization of local enterprises [3].