中金：首批科创债ETF上市，债券ETF未来已来

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Bond ETFs on July 10, 2025, has significantly reshaped the bond ETF market landscape, with total assets nearing 100 billion yuan by July 21, 2025 [1][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond ETF market has undergone a supply-side transformation, expanding from 21 bond ETFs before 2025 to 39 by July 22, 2025, including 21 credit bond ETFs [1][10]. - The liquidity of bond ETFs is critical, with 7 of the newly launched products showing an average turnover rate exceeding 100% [8][9]. - The rapid inflow of funds into the Sci-Tech Bond ETFs raises concerns about potential price volatility due to trading congestion [9]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Products - As of July 22, 2025, there are 314 passive bond funds in the market, primarily focused on government and interbank certificates, indicating a gap in areas like comprehensive bonds, green bonds, and central enterprise themes for bond ETFs [11][12]. - The overseas bond ETF market features innovative categories such as high-yield bond ETFs and multi-asset ETFs, which are yet to be developed in the domestic market [11]. Group 3: Growth and Competition - The overall scale of passive products reached 5.79 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with bond ETFs experiencing a remarkable quarterly growth rate of 76.2% [3][16]. - The concentration of passive products has slightly increased, with the CR5 rising from 47.9% in Q1 2025 to 48.3% in Q2 2025, indicating a trend towards greater market concentration among leading fund managers [42].