中金：谁又是南向的主力？——公募2Q持仓的线索

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been active with a highly structured sector rotation, significantly influenced by abundant liquidity and the role of southbound capital, which has become increasingly critical in driving market trends [1][2]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Dynamics - Year-to-date, southbound net inflows have reached 797.45 billion HKD, nearing last year's total of 807.87 billion HKD [2]. - The proportion of active public funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks has increased from 25.8% at the end of last year to 32.5%, contributing approximately 10-15% of the total southbound inflow [2]. - Overall public fund holdings in Hong Kong stocks have risen from 30.5% to around 39.8%, with a net increase of approximately 2,200-2,800 billion HKD year-to-date [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Structure and Performance - The total number of public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks has reached 4,048, with total assets of 2.62 trillion RMB, reflecting a significant increase in both the number of funds and total assets [3][4]. - Active equity funds have seen their Hong Kong stock holdings rise to a record high of 32.5%, while their proportion in southbound capital has decreased, indicating they are not the main drivers of southbound flows [4][5]. - The concentration of holdings among top stocks has decreased, with the top three stocks accounting for 30.9% of the market value of the top 100 stocks, down from 39.8% [6][33]. Group 3: Sector Preferences and Trends - The healthcare and financial sectors have gained the most favor, while retail and media entertainment sectors have seen the most significant declines [5][32]. - The market has shown a shift towards traditional sectors, with the market value of old economy stocks increasing from 20.7% to 22.9%, while new economy stocks have seen a decline [5][32]. - Individual stocks such as Innovent Biologics and Triple Point have seen the most significant increases in fund holdings, while Alibaba and Tencent have experienced notable reductions [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Southbound capital inflows are expected to exceed 1 trillion HKD this year, with a more certain increment of 200-300 billion HKD anticipated [7]. - The market has recently broken upward, with the Hang Seng Index potentially reaching 26,000 points, driven by factors such as the recovery of the internet sector and cyclical stocks [8][9]. - The current market environment suggests that buying during low periods may be more advantageous than chasing during high periods, advocating for a "new dumbbell" strategy in asset allocation [11].