Counterpoint Research·2025-07-23 09:15Core Viewpoint - The global PC shipment volume is expected to grow by 8.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the largest increase since the pandemic peak in 2022, driven by the end of Windows 10 support, the rise of AI PCs, and early procurement due to anticipated tariff changes [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The growth in Q2 2025 is primarily driven by demand from the commercial sector, as large enterprises and public institutions accelerate device upgrades ahead of the Windows 10 support deadline [2][6]. - Lenovo, Apple, and Asus all saw shipment increases exceeding 10%, further solidifying their market leadership [2][4]. - The global PC manufacturing industry remains highly concentrated in China, posing significant challenges in reducing tariff risks in the short term [2][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook - PC shipment growth may slow in the second half of 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, but demand for AI PCs is expected to become a significant growth driver by 2026 [6][8]. - Counterpoint predicts that over half of the laptops shipped in 2026 will be AI laptops, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][9]. - The ongoing geopolitical landscape is prompting PC suppliers and manufacturers to diversify production away from China, with countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico emerging as alternative manufacturing hubs [6][9]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Ensuring a reliable and cost-effective supply chain for products aimed at the U.S. market has become a top priority for PC manufacturers [9]. - The transition to manufacturing outside of China is a long-term process that requires significant investment in infrastructure, employee training, and logistics [9]. - The diversification of production bases is a strategic response to mitigate risks associated with trade disruptions and to enhance competitiveness in a rapidly changing environment [9].