专题 | 2025上半年千万豪宅热销动因解析及趋势预判

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in key cities is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan, particularly in Shanghai, which leads the market [3][4][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume of luxury homes (priced over 10 million yuan) in 20 key cities increased by 21% year-on-year, while the overall new home market only saw a 5% increase [4][59]. - The total number of luxury homes sold in first-tier cities reached 16,000 units, a 15% increase year-on-year, while second and third-tier cities saw a 37% increase with 5,871 units sold [4][59]. - Shanghai's luxury market is particularly strong, with properties priced over 50 million yuan accounting for 78% of total transactions in this segment [18][59]. Group 2: Characteristics of Luxury Homes - The proportion of luxury homes sold in the 1,000-3,000 million yuan range increased significantly, with Shanghai showing a notable rise from 18.72% in 2024 to 23.72% in 2025 [9][59]. - Large luxury homes (over 180 square meters) accounted for 46% of transactions, although the concentration in this segment is decreasing, indicating a shift towards more diverse property sizes [19][23]. - The most popular size for luxury homes in first-tier cities has shifted to 120-140 square meters, reflecting changing buyer preferences [24][59]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The increase in high-premium land supply has led to a surge in luxury home projects, particularly in cities like Ningbo and Xiamen, where the supply of luxury homes increased by 113% year-on-year [29][31]. - The "Good House" national strategy has prompted developers to enhance the quality of new luxury homes, making them more appealing compared to second-hand properties [37][39]. - Economic conditions have allowed for the appreciation of second-hand luxury homes, making them attractive for both self-use and investment [42][43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - An estimated 775,000 square meters of luxury homes are expected to be supplied in the second half of 2025, with the third quarter anticipated to be a peak period for new listings [48][49]. - Cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are facing significant supply constraints, while others like Hangzhou and Chengdu may experience oversupply [53][54]. - The demand for high-quality luxury homes remains strong among high-net-worth individuals, suggesting continued growth potential in the luxury market [58].