POP MART(HK:09992) 第一财经·2025-07-24 13:39Core Viewpoint - The success of LABUBU has propelled Pop Mart to the forefront of the trendy toy industry, but it has also led to supply shortages due to overwhelming demand. The company is actively working to optimize its supply chain and increase production capacity to meet this demand while avoiding excessive speculation in the secondary market [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart expects its revenue for the first half of this year to grow by no less than 200% year-on-year, with profit growth projected at no less than 350%. Last year's first half revenue was 45.58 billion yuan, a 62% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 9.21 billion yuan, up 93.32% [4]. - In the first half of this year, Pop Mart's revenue and net profit have already surpassed the total for the previous year, with estimates of at least 137 billion yuan in revenue and over 41 billion yuan in net profit [4][5]. - The Chinese toy and game market is currently valued at nearly 400 billion yuan, with growth rates significantly outpacing those of mature markets in Europe and North America [4][5]. Group 2: Market Trends - The toy sales in most Western markets are experiencing a slight decline, with a 0.6% drop across 12 countries, while China's toy market continues to grow, projected to reach 1,655 billion yuan by 2028 [5]. - Pop Mart holds approximately 14% market share in the trendy toy segment, while other categories like building blocks and educational toys are also seeing rapid growth [5][6]. - The retail space for trendy toys is expanding, with a notable increase in leasing activity for trendy toy brands in Shanghai, rising from 2.0% to 2.6% of the total retail space [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The emotional purchasing motivation among consumers supports the long-term development of the trendy toy sector, but continuous innovation is necessary to maintain consumer interest [7][9]. - The trend of "breaking the dimensional wall" in trendy toys is attracting consumers of all ages, with significant cross-industry collaborations emerging, particularly in sectors like dining and entertainment [9][12]. - The integration of trendy toys into various consumer scenarios is enhancing brand loyalty and increasing purchase frequency, as seen in collaborations between dining brands and popular IPs [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The trend of cross-industry collaboration is expected to lead to a "de-bordering" of the trendy toy industry, expanding its consumer base from Generation Z to older demographics [12][13]. - Companies are encouraged to explore the lower-tier markets, which are seen as crucial for future growth, with strategies tailored to the unique characteristics of these markets [19]. - The potential for new product forms and business models, such as trendy fitness equipment and smart home products, is anticipated to emerge, further expanding the market landscape [13][18].