国泰海通｜海外策略：从产能周期视角看“反内卷”

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the phenomenon of "involution" in various industries within the A-share market, particularly emphasizing the midstream manufacturing sector's more pronounced competition compared to upstream resource industries. It notes that the willingness to expand production has significantly decreased across most industries, with over half showing strong capacity for expansion [1][2]. Existing Capacity Utilization Level - The industry capacity utilization rate is calculated using the Cobb-Douglas production function, measuring the ratio of actual output to potential maximum output under given capital and labor factors. As of Q1 2025, most industries are operating at historically low capacity utilization levels, with only the home appliance and electronics sectors showing upward trends [1]. Potential Incremental Capacity Level - The marginal changes in industry capacity will influence capacity utilization trends, particularly the timing of turning points. The willingness to expand production is assessed through the historical ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation. As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historically low levels of expansion willingness, except for utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals, which show relatively stronger willingness. The expansion capacity is primarily determined by current cash reserves and cash flow, with most primary industries at historically high levels of expansion capacity [2]. Historical Capacity Clearing in Different Industries - In emerging industries, the clearing signal is linked to cash capability and a drop in expansion willingness. For instance, the solar industry experienced a rapid decline in capacity utilization from 2011 to 2015, reaching a low point in Q1 2013, followed by two years of low-level fluctuations until significant relief in overcapacity occurred in Q2 2014 when both cash capability and expansion willingness dropped to 0%. In traditional industries like steel and coal, the clearing signal is an improvement in cash capability, with both industries undergoing a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, leading to a "V" shaped trajectory in capacity utilization [3]. Current Capacity Clearing Trajectory - Drawing from past experiences, the report discusses the current capacity clearing trajectory. In the renewable energy sector, lithium battery and solar capacity utilization rates have reached historical lows, with lithium's potential incremental capacity and utilization rates declining earlier than solar. Both sectors' expansion willingness is nearing 0% for the first time in a decade, while cash capability remains around historical median levels. Traditional industries, such as steel and coal, are not facing severe overcapacity issues like in previous cycles, with current capacity utilization rates approaching 19-year lows, and signs of improving cash capability in basic chemicals and steel [4].