Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in soda ash prices is driven by the strong performance of leading commodities like coking coal and improvements in microeconomic factors, with a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market for the time being [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Products - The leading industrial products currently are polysilicon and coking coal, which are driving the market dynamics for related commodities like soda ash and glass [2]. - Despite some institutions in Hangzhou facing losses, others have begun to adopt a bullish stance on commodities with improving fundamentals, indicating a potential wave of price increases [2]. - The expectation for the third quarter remains tight and balanced, with no significant signs of a downturn as long as the leading commodities maintain their strength [2]. Group 2: Policy and News - Recent announcements from the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding the draft amendment to the Price Law aim to regulate market pricing and combat "involution" competition, providing further support for bullish sentiment [3]. - The "anti-involution" document from the Salt Industry Association has been revisited, contributing to a positive narrative in the market, which enhances the potential for upward price movements [3]. Group 3: Microeconomic Factors - The speculative demand for soda ash and glass has improved due to heightened market enthusiasm, leading to a reduction in inventory levels [4]. - As of July 24, 2025, soda ash factory inventory stood at 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% month-on-month, while glass inventory decreased by 4.69% to 61.896 million boxes [4]. - Recent price increases for soda ash from companies like Yinheng Chemical and Zhongyuan Chemical reflect strong order volumes and a willingness to raise prices, with a recent adjustment of 150 yuan per ton [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current price increase in soda ash is primarily driven by coking coal, with limited improvements in the fundamental aspects of the market [6]. - The third quarter may continue to see strong performance in industrial products due to both financial and policy support, although some products may experience differentiation as delivery dates approach [6]. - The fourth quarter could present a divergence in trends, influenced by the outcomes of the Fourth Plenary Session and the actual performance of demand and exports compared to expectations [6].
研客专栏 | 纯碱:行情运行到哪一步?
对冲研投·2025-07-24 11:44