从四个指标看目前商品的暴涨阶段

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price increases in various sectors, particularly in the new energy, building materials, and coal industries, driven by a shift away from excessive competition and a focus on structural adjustments in key industries [3][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Trends - Since July, the new energy sector has seen significant price increases, with polysilicon rising by 57%, industrial silicon by 20%, and lithium carbonate by 13% [3]. - In the black metal sector, coking coal has increased by 33.4%, with other commodities also experiencing gains of over 10% [3]. - The chemical sector has seen prices for caustic soda and alumina rise by more than 10%, while other energy, non-ferrous, and agricultural products have shown relatively muted performance [3]. Group 2: Futures vs. Spot Prices - The futures prices in the affected sectors have risen significantly faster than spot prices, leading to a rapid decrease in basis rates, such as polysilicon at -12% and coking coal at -11% [4]. - The future correction of basis rates will depend on the willingness of downstream buyers to restock and whether the arbitrage window opens for buying spot and hedging in futures [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is influenced by overly pessimistic views from the previous quarter, which led to active price reductions to clear inventory [4]. - Core inventory levels for some commodities are not high, indicating that if the downstream demand continues to improve, there could be a scenario where spot prices rise alongside futures, strengthening the basis [4]. Group 4: Downstream Purchasing Behavior - Downstream industries are exhibiting a "buy on the rise, sell on the fall" mentality, which could lead to synchronized price increases in both spot and futures markets if restocking occurs [4]. - The overall sentiment suggests that until inventory levels reach a relatively high point, commodities may continue to experience upward price pressure [4].