【有色】雅江水电叠加战略价值重估，钨精矿价格屡创新高——钨行业点评报告（王招华/方驭涛/马俊/张寅帅）

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in tungsten prices and the factors driving future demand, particularly from large infrastructure projects and military applications [4][5][6][10]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 21, 2025, the price of Jiangxi tungsten concentrate (65%) reached a historical high of 182,500 yuan per ton, marking a continuous rise since May 13, 2025 [4]. - The overseas tungsten market has also seen price increases, with European tungsten iron prices ranging from 52 to 52.6 USD per kilogram, and APT prices reaching 460 to 485 USD per ton as of July 16, 2025 [9]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The commencement of the Yajiang hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost the demand for tungsten used in tunnel boring machines (TBM) and shield machines [5]. - Future demand for tungsten is anticipated to grow from several key sectors, including photovoltaic tungsten wire, military applications, and nuclear fusion technologies [6][7]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The total control indicators for tungsten mining in 2024 have been set at 62,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from 2023, marking the first tightening since 2021. For 2025, the control indicator is further reduced to 58,000 tons, a decline of 6.45% [8]. - The tightening of mining quotas is expected to impact smaller mining enterprises that do not meet production capacity requirements [8]. Group 4: Strategic Value - Tungsten shares several strategic characteristics with rare earth elements, including controlled mining quotas and military applications, leading to a reassessment of its strategic value [10].