中金：宏观视角看汇率

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in major currency exchange rates, particularly the depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the euro, have drawn significant market attention. The recent rebound of the dollar index and the "catch-up" of the RMB against the dollar are noteworthy trends [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - Historical data indicates that predicting exchange rate movements is challenging due to numerous influencing factors, including unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral elements [1]. - A comparison of the IMF's assessments of the US dollar's real effective exchange rate (REER) over the past 20 years reveals a notable divergence from actual changes in the dollar's REER [1]. - The RMB's exchange rate has shown volatility, with a significant reversal in trends observed in late 2013, despite market consensus predicting a shift to the "5 era" for the RMB against the dollar [1]. Group 2: Theoretical Frameworks - To better assess exchange rates, it is essential to move beyond mainstream analytical frameworks and adopt a new perspective that incorporates both neoclassical and post-Keynesian views [1]. - Neoclassical economics emphasizes the current account as the primary determinant of exchange rates, while post-Keynesian economics focuses on capital flows as the fundamental force affecting exchange rates [1]. - The increasing significance of capital flows and the volatility of foreign exchange transactions suggest that post-Keynesian thinking aligns more closely with current realities [1]. Group 3: US Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in views between White House economic advisor Milan, who believes the dollar is overvalued, and Treasury Secretary Basent, who aims to maintain a strong dollar, highlights differing perspectives on the dollar's role in the economy [2]. - The US has maintained a relatively stable current account deficit, but uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, contributing to a decline in the dollar's value [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has dropped by over 10%, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and rising concerns over fiscal deficits [2]. Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Pressure - Trump's recent tariff announcements, which include high tariffs on key industries, could push the overall effective tariff rate in the US above 20%, adding pressure to the economy and inflation [3]. - The trend of debt monetization in the US is becoming more apparent, with projected budget deficits remaining high at around 6.5%-7% in the coming years [3]. - Increasing signs of fiscal intervention in monetary policy, as indicated by recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve, suggest a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3]. Group 5: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has appreciated against the dollar by 1.7% since the beginning of the year, but has depreciated by 8.9% against the euro during the same period [4]. - A comprehensive index of the RMB against a basket of currencies shows a cumulative depreciation of 5.3% since the start of the year, indicating that the RMB's appreciation against the dollar is primarily driven by dollar-specific factors [4]. - The RMB's exchange rate remains crucial for exports, as fluctuations against a basket of currencies can partially offset the impacts of tariff changes [4]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The RMB's exchange rate has been largely "passive" thus far, but future movements will depend on factors such as US-China relations and domestic economic conditions [5]. - If China's economic growth stabilizes and market confidence improves, a potential appreciation of the RMB against the dollar may continue in the short term [5].