中金2025下半年展望 | 半导体及元器件：AI飞轮加速

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor and components industry is expected to experience growth momentum driven by the deepening penetration of generative AI technology in the second half of 2025, improved competitive landscape, and accelerated domestic substitution [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Global semiconductor market is projected to reach $700.9 billion and $760.7 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11% and 9% [3] - The integrated circuit sector will benefit from growth in logic circuits and memory, with growth rates of 13% and 9% respectively [3] - DRAM prices are expected to rise by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 due to supply tightness and seasonal demand [3] - NAND Flash prices are anticipated to increase by 5%-10% in Q3 2025, driven by demand from AI servers [3] Group 2: Innovation and AI Impact - AI is becoming the core engine of industry innovation, establishing a positive feedback loop of "computing power-model-application-data" [3] - Cloud computing power demand is experiencing high growth, with major overseas model vendors planning significant capital expenditures [3] - Domestic leaders like Minimax and Kimi are accelerating model iterations, enhancing the stability of the cloud AI chip supply chain [3] Group 3: Domestic Substitution - The trend of "China for China" is leading to a full-chain penetration of domestic substitution, particularly in cloud computing power chips and RF front-end modules [4] - Domestic manufacturers are gradually breaking through barriers with major clients amid supply chain restrictions [4] - The market share of leading domestic companies in semiconductor equipment and materials is increasing significantly [4] Group 4: Semiconductor Design and Manufacturing - AI-related applications remain the primary growth driver for the semiconductor design sector, with a positive cycle forming in domestic cloud computing power chip demand [7] - The utilization rate in the semiconductor manufacturing sector is expected to remain high, driven by strong demand in automotive-grade chips and AI-related products [7] - The semiconductor equipment orders in the second half of 2025 are expected to be primarily from the storage sector due to high utilization rates [7] Group 5: Storage Chips - The supply-demand tightness for both bulk and niche storage products is expected to continue, with price increases likely extending into Q3 2025 [22] - DRAM prices have already risen by 5%-10% in Q2 2025, with further increases anticipated [22] - The demand for NOR Flash is expected to grow due to the release of AI wearable devices [24] Group 6: CMOS Image Sensors (CIS) and RF Chips - The automotive application of CIS is expected to see significant growth, with a trend towards higher pixel counts [31] - The domestic RF chip market is at a critical point for substitution, particularly in key modules [35] Group 7: Power Devices and Semiconductor Equipment - The demand for high-voltage, high-current chips is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, driven by policy changes and product upgrades [40] - Major semiconductor equipment companies are experiencing revenue growth of 30%-40% year-on-year, with continued domestic substitution [47] Group 8: Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach $67.5 billion in 2024, with growth driven by increased demand from wafer manufacturing and packaging materials [48] Group 9: EDA Tools - The EDA design tools sector is expected to see revenue growth outpace profit growth, driven by low domestic market penetration [49]