行业透视｜半年末50城库存整体下行，但外围区域去化压力不减

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently in a de-inventory cycle due to restricted new housing supply, with a notable decline in inventory levels across 50 key cities, down 7% year-on-year as of June 2025 [2][4][17]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - As of June 2025, the narrow inventory of new residential properties in 50 cities stands at 30,927 million square meters, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decrease [4][17]. - The de-inventory cycle has resulted in an average de-inventory period of 21.82 months, which is a 5% decrease year-on-year [4][17]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Wuhan have de-inventory periods exceeding 18 months, indicating ongoing pressure to reduce inventory [4][17]. Group 2: Inventory Structure by Area - The primary inventory in Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing consists of medium-sized units (100-120 square meters), accounting for over 20% of total inventory [6][17]. - There is an increase in inventory for larger units (over 160 square meters) due to a steady supply of high-end residential properties, while sales growth has not kept pace, leading to short-term inventory accumulation [6][17]. - In Guangzhou, the inventory for units sized 120-140 square meters and 160-180 square meters has seen significant increases, while smaller units (70-100 square meters) have experienced notable declines [6][17]. Group 3: Regional Inventory Characteristics - In Guangzhou, the inventory is heavily concentrated in lower-value peripheral areas, with the inventory ratio in the增城区 reaching 22.26%, a year-on-year increase of 0.06 percentage points [10][11]. - In Wuhan, the inventory in the东西湖区 is 13.51%, while in Nanjing's江宁区, it stands at 20.57%, indicating a similar trend of high inventory in lower-value areas [10][11]. - Core urban areas in these cities have seen a slight increase in inventory ratios, suggesting a shift in demand towards more central locations [10][11]. Group 4: De-inventory Cycle Analysis - The de-inventory cycle is characterized by high periods for smaller units (below 80 square meters) and larger units (above 180 square meters), with significant pressure on these segments due to limited transaction volumes [13][17]. - For instance, in Guangzhou, units below 70 square meters and above 160 square meters have de-inventory periods exceeding 30 months [13][17]. - Peripheral areas in cities like Guangzhou's增城区 and武汉's长江新区 are facing substantial de-inventory pressures, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [15][17].