国泰海通｜交运：快递价格降幅收窄，反内卷促良性竞争

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price decline, which may lead to a more stable competitive environment. The focus on leading e-commerce express companies is expected to enhance their market share and catalyze valuation recovery opportunities, while the timing for cyclical bottoming in express delivery services is also favorable [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 15.8% year-on-year, with a total of 16.87 billion packages expected to be delivered by the end of the month. The second quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year growth of 17.3%, driven by e-commerce promotions and convenient return policies [1][2]. - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain a growth rate exceeding 8% for the entire year of 2025, surpassing the predictions made by the postal administration [1]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the business volume growth rates for major listed companies were as follows: SF Express +31.8%, YTO Express +19.3%, Yunda Express +7.4%, and Shentong Express +11.1%. For Q2 2025, the growth rates were +31.2%, +21.8%, +11.2%, and +16.0% respectively [1][2]. - The single-package revenue for the four major companies in June 2025 showed declines: SF Express -13.3%, YTO Express -6.7%, Yunda Express -4.5%, and Shentong Express -1.0%. In Q2 2025, the declines were -13.7%, -6.3%, -5.4%, and -2.5% respectively [3]. Market Concentration - The concentration of the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 index reaching 87.0 in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market shares for major companies in June 2025 were SF Express 8.7%, YTO Express 15.6%, Yunda Express 12.9%, and Shentong Express 12.9% [2]. Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry's revenue grew by 9.0% year-on-year in June 2025, while the single-package revenue decreased by 5.8%. In Q2 2025, the revenue growth was 9.3%, with a single-package revenue decline of 6.8%. The narrowing of the price decline indicates a potential easing of price competition [3][4].