穿越焦煤周期：当前行情能否比肩历史牛市？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices, following a significant drop earlier in the year, raises questions about the potential for a bull market, drawing parallels to historical trends in the past 20 years [1]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - The coking coal market has experienced four notable bull markets since the launch of coking coal futures in 2013 [1]. - The first bull market occurred in 2016, driven by supply-side reforms that reduced excess capacity, leading to a price increase from 515 points to 1676 points within the year [4][5]. - The second bull market spanned from August 2020 to March 2022, where prices surged from 1027.5 points to a peak of 3878.5 points, influenced by post-COVID recovery and supply chain disruptions [10][11]. - The third bull market, from November 2021 to May 2022, saw prices rise from 1783 points to 3297.5 points, driven by international supply chain issues and domestic production constraints [14][15]. Group 2: Recent Market Dynamics - In 2023, coking coal prices rebounded from a low of 1195 points to 2179 points, attributed to low inventory levels and supportive policies in the real estate sector [20][21]. - The market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with expectations of continued price strength due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [25]. - However, the medium-term outlook remains cautious, as fundamental supply-demand dynamics will ultimately dictate market conditions, necessitating close monitoring of production recovery and import levels [26].