【石化化工】纯碱、PVC：下游需求待复苏，“反内卷”有望加速供给侧出清——反内卷稳增长系列之六（赵乃迪/周家诺/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Group 1 - The article discusses the implementation of a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and construction materials, aimed at adjusting industry structure and optimizing supply [2][3] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to have long-term market impacts across multiple sectors, including infrastructure, energy, and materials [3] - The focus on infrastructure-related chemical products, such as soda ash, PVC, and water-reducing agents, is recommended due to the anticipated benefits from the hydropower project and related policies [3] Group 2 - In the soda ash sector, the industry concentration is expected to increase under the "anti-involution" policy, with 15 companies projected to have a combined capacity of 30.9 million tons, accounting for about 70% of the total capacity [4] - The demand for soda ash is projected to be supported by the recovery in photovoltaic glass demand, as the production of flat glass is expected to reach approximately 8.37 million weight boxes in 2024, translating to a soda ash demand of around 837,000 tons [6] - The PVC industry is closely linked to the construction and real estate sectors, with a projected apparent consumption of approximately 2.089 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.26% from 2019 to 2024 [7][8] Group 3 - The PVC production capacity in China is currently at 2.886 million tons, with a low concentration level, and the industry is facing pressure from stricter environmental regulations, which may lead to a transformation in the industry structure [8] - The anticipated increase in PVC production is limited, with a projected growth rate of only 3.4% in 2024, and the introduction of the "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive the exit of small and inefficient capacities from the market [8]