磨刀霍霍向白酒

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential recovery of the liquor industry, particularly the white wine sector, highlighting that stock prices may rebound before actual performance improvements are observed [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant influx of off-market funds into the liquor industry as investors anticipate a recovery, leading to increased buying activity [2]. - Fund holdings in major brands like Moutai are notably low, suggesting that even a slight increase in positions could lead to substantial price increases [2]. - The white wine sector has experienced a price decline for four years, but loyal consumers remain, indicating a potential for price recovery with reduced selling pressure [2]. Group 2: Performance Indicators - A performance turning point for the liquor industry is expected around 2025, with stock price recoveries likely occurring beforehand [3]. - The stock price of Laojiao has already increased by 20% from 107 yuan, which is often seen as a bullish indicator in the market [3]. - The lowest point in this cycle was likely around 98 yuan last September, suggesting that the market has already priced in known risks [3]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The consumption of liquor is expected to rise due to increased consumer spending driven by stable real estate prices and a bullish stock market [3]. - The article emphasizes that the best time to enter the market is often when the majority feel pessimistic, indicating a contrarian investment opportunity [3]. - The stability of the market price for premium products, such as Feitian at over 1800 yuan, reflects a healthier supply-demand balance than perceived by many [2].