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我投资了银行股5年,选择了“体面分手”!
雪球·2025-07-26 04:03

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment journey in bank stocks over five years, highlighting the use of a unique metric called "市赚率" (Market Earnings Ratio) to identify undervalued stocks and make investment decisions [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The author developed the Market Earnings Ratio (PR) formula as PR = PE / ROE / 100, inspired by Warren Buffett's investment philosophy [3]. - The author adjusted the target price for H-shares from 1.0 PR to 0.8 PR due to liquidity and dividend yield concerns [3]. - A correction factor (N) was introduced based on dividend payout ratios, with different coefficients for varying payout levels [3]. Historical Performance - In 2020, the author successfully identified and invested in Postal Savings Bank H-shares, which were undervalued with a correction market earnings ratio of 0.4 PR [4]. - In 2021, after recognizing the high provision coverage of Postal Savings Bank, the author recalculated PE and ROE, leading to a significant increase in stock price [5]. - In 2022, after a management change, the author invested in China Merchants Bank H-shares, which also became undervalued [6]. - In 2023, China Merchants Bank H-shares saw a price doubling, but the author realized the mistake of considering high provisions as hidden profits, leading to a reevaluation of investment strategies [6]. Current Market Analysis - By 2024, the author decided to completely liquidate Postal Savings Bank H-shares and increased holdings in China Merchants Bank H-shares, reflecting a strategic shift based on market conditions [7]. - As of 2025, the average valuations for major banks were noted, with the author choosing to exit positions due to perceived overvaluation in the banking sector [8]. - The article emphasizes that the Market Earnings Ratio aligns with discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation principles, suggesting a potential upward adjustment in reasonable valuations due to low interest rates [8].