Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extreme volatility in the futures market, particularly referencing the "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016, and highlights the current trends in various commodities driven by policy expectations and market narratives [2][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - The "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016 saw extreme fluctuations where commodities like cotton dropped from a limit-up of +7% to limit-down of -7% within minutes, showcasing the potential for rapid market shifts [2][3]. - The article emphasizes that the current market behavior reflects a similar pattern where narratives and policy expectations drive prices, often ignoring fundamental supply and demand realities [4][5][6]. Group 2: Current Market Trends - Recent trends indicate a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in sectors like new energy and construction materials, with notable price increases such as 57% for polysilicon and 33.4% for coking coal since July [31][32]. - The article notes that the futures prices are rising faster than spot prices, leading to a narrowing basis, which could indicate a potential correction depending on downstream replenishment intentions [32][34]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain dynamics are highlighted, particularly in the coking coal market, where the disconnect between upstream price increases and downstream demand could lead to market pressures [35][37]. - The article warns that high prices could suppress speculative demand and stimulate foreign production, creating resistance to further price increases [38]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The article discusses the implications of government policies on supply-side reforms, suggesting that past experiences with supply-side reforms will influence current market expectations and behaviors [40][41]. - It raises concerns about the potential for demand-side pain in the current economic environment, contrasting it with previous supply-side reforms that had stronger demand support [44].
本轮“反内卷”行情到头了吗?
对冲研投·2025-07-26 07:58