Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "de-dollarization" in the context of a weakening US dollar and highlights the importance of understanding the international monetary system through a recommended reading list of 20 classic works [3][24]. Group 1: Hot Topics - The rumor of "firing" Powell has led to significant market reactions, including declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies [2][3]. - The article explores the potential implications of Trump's ability to dismiss Powell and whether Powell might resign early [3][10]. - A focus on how overseas countries are addressing issues of overcapacity and competition, with examples from Japan and Germany, is presented as a reference for China's future policy [6][20]. Group 2: Export Trends - Following an unexpected rise in June exports, there is speculation on whether July exports will also exceed expectations, with traditional indicators showing a downward bias [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring "hidden" indicators that could provide insights into export performance [10]. Group 3: Domestic and International Tracking - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has reached a new high for the year, indicating a recovery in industrial production and construction activity [15][16]. - The US may increase tariffs on European goods following weaker-than-expected core CPI data for June [18][19]. Group 4: Policy Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference held in Beijing outlines a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing the need for a people-centered approach and improved urban governance [21][20]. - Key strategies include optimizing urban systems, fostering innovation, and enhancing livability while addressing environmental concerns [21]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article raises questions about where the new "three trillion" investments will be directed, particularly in the context of GDP per capita transitioning from $10,000 to $30,000, which typically shifts demand towards the service sector [24][23].
申万宏观·周度研究成果（7.19-7.25）
赵伟宏观探索·2025-07-25 23:32