【宏观】稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链——《大国博弈》第八十八篇（高瑞东/赵格格）

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins serve as a bridge between decentralized cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies, aiming to reduce volatility and enhance payment efficiency, but they exhibit centralized characteristics due to their reliance on fiat and crypto asset collateral [2]. Group 1: Nature of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies or assets, designed to mitigate market volatility and improve payment efficiency [2]. - The issuance of stablecoins requires collateral in the form of fiat and crypto assets, reflecting a centralized nature despite their decentralized branding [2]. - The primary profit model for stablecoin issuers involves holding user deposits without paying interest while investing the collateral in various assets [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - USDT and USDC dominate the stablecoin market, accounting for approximately 90% of trading volume and 80% of market capitalization, indicating a highly concentrated market [2]. - Tether and Circle, the issuers of USDT and USDC respectively, employ different investment strategies, with Tether holding about 80% in government bonds and cash, while Circle focuses on safer but lower-yielding assets [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The regulatory frameworks in the US, EU, and Hong Kong share a common structure but differ in regulatory targets and reserve asset management [3]. - The US GENIUS Act specifies that payment stablecoins must be backed by 100% cash or short-term US Treasury securities, with a diverse regulatory oversight [3]. - The EU MiCA Act aims for broader regulation of crypto assets, focusing on risk prevention and maintaining financial stability within the Eurozone [3]. - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance emphasizes strict approval processes and high reserve coverage, balancing financial innovation with stability [3]. Group 4: Macro Implications - Dollar-pegged stablecoins expand the functionality and usage scenarios of the US dollar, reinforcing its position in the international monetary system [5]. - While stablecoins tied to US debt may alleviate some government debt pressures, they do not fundamentally resolve the US's long-term fiscal challenges [5]. - The growth of stablecoins could destabilize the short-term US Treasury market and weaken macroeconomic policy effectiveness [5]. Group 5: Liquidity Management Challenges - Stablecoins enhance the velocity of money, similar to fiat currencies, but introduce new challenges for central banks in managing liquidity [5]. - Potential issues include the creation of additional liquidity through lower reserve ratios and the emergence of a "shadow" banking system dominated by stablecoins [5].