光大证券研究·2025-07-26 12:41Core Viewpoint - The carbon fiber industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with prices stabilizing after a significant decline, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to improve industry conditions [3][4][7]. Industry Overview - As of July 24, 2025, domestic carbon fiber prices are at 83.75 yuan/kg, down 8.2% year-on-year, indicating a challenging environment for producers, with an average gross profit of -0.83 thousand yuan/ton [3]. - The total carbon fiber production capacity in China is 159,500 tons, with expected new capacities of approximately 46,530 tons from 2025 to 2028 [4]. Demand Dynamics - Global carbon fiber demand is projected to reach 156,100 tons in 2024, a 35.7% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in the wind power sector (120% increase) and the sports leisure sector (51.6% increase) [5][6]. - In China, the total demand for carbon fiber in 2024 is expected to be 84,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [5]. Domestic Replacement Progress - The domestic carbon fiber industry has made significant strides in technology and production capabilities, moving towards self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on imports [6]. - The industry has developed a complete production system for various grades of carbon fiber, including high-performance types [6]. Future Outlook - With the stabilization of carbon fiber prices, leading manufacturers with scale and cost advantages are expected to see improved profitability [7]. - The growth in end-user demand from sectors like low-altitude economy and aerospace will benefit companies capable of mass-producing high-end carbon fibers [7].