美国贸易战历史案例的回顾与启示 | 国际

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the historical context and implications of major trade wars in the U.S., emphasizing their impact on global economic governance and the restructuring of international relations, particularly in the context of the current U.S.-China trade friction [2]. Group 1: Historical Trade Wars - The McKinley Tariff (1890-1900) raised average import tariffs to a historical high of 49.5%, leading to retaliatory tariffs from other countries and ultimately a trade war [4][7]. - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff (1930-1934) significantly increased tariffs on over 20,000 goods, raising the average tariff from 40.1% in 1929 to 59.1% in 1932, which exacerbated the Great Depression and led to a 65% drop in global trade from 1929 to 1934 [8][11]. - The U.S.-Japan trade conflict (1970-1985) involved the U.S. imposing tariffs and quotas on Japanese products, which resulted in a significant depreciation of the dollar and a 48% drop in the S&P 500 index from 1973 to 1974 [13][14][15]. Group 2: Economic and Political Impacts - The McKinley Tariff fostered the growth of American industrial capitalism but also increased social inequality and agricultural distress, leading to heightened social tensions [7]. - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff deepened the Great Depression, with U.S. GDP falling by 26.5% and unemployment soaring to 24.9%, while also ending the gold standard as countries devalued their currencies to boost export competitiveness [11]. - The U.S.-Japan trade conflict highlighted the ineffectiveness of U.S. industrial protection measures, ultimately leading to structural economic issues and the "lost decade" for Japan due to the financial bubble burst [15][16].