关税战如何影响中国物价：表现、展望及应对

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the ongoing tariff war initiated by Trump on China's domestic prices, highlighting the significant downward pressure on prices due to insufficient domestic demand and external shocks from tariffs [2][4]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff War on Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June 2025 fell to -3.6%, the lowest since August 2023, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained around 0, indicating persistent low price levels in China [4][6]. - The tariff war has exacerbated the downward pressure on domestic prices, with global economic growth expectations declining and commodity prices, such as oil, dropping significantly [5][19]. - The decline in international oil prices has had a notable input drag on domestic prices, with PPI for the petroleum industry showing significant year-on-year declines [6][19]. Group 2: Export Dynamics and Price Changes - Direct exports to the U.S. have decreased significantly, with certain goods like textiles and furniture experiencing price drops due to increased tariffs [7][8]. - Export prices have fallen sharply, with the average price of clothing imports from China to the U.S. dropping by 17.4% and 8.3% in April and May 2025, respectively [8][11]. - The shift of exports to domestic sales has led to increased competition and price reductions in the domestic market, particularly in labor-intensive sectors [21][22]. Group 3: Future Price Trends and Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that the price trajectory in the second half of 2025 will depend on domestic consumption and investment policies, while external shocks from the tariff war remain a concern [18][20]. - Recommendations include expanding non-U.S. market exports, supporting foreign trade enterprises, and preventing excessive price competition in the domestic market to stabilize prices [26][28][29]. - The need to enhance domestic effective demand is emphasized as a critical factor in addressing the ongoing low price levels in China [29].