黄金“蓄势待发”！摩根大通：最强催化剂是“美国就业恶化导致美联储降息”

Core Viewpoint - The future rise in gold prices is contingent on ETF fund inflows being reignited, which requires the Federal Reserve to fulfill interest rate cut expectations and drive down U.S. real yields, with deteriorating employment data being the strongest bullish catalyst [1][9]. Group 1: ETF Inflows and Gold Prices - Continuous central bank gold purchases provide support for gold prices, but further increases in ETF inflows and futures long positions are necessary for gold to break above $3,400 per ounce [6]. - Since May, gold prices have been oscillating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce, influenced by trade agreements between the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S. and Europe [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that a net increase of 715 tons (+22%) in global gold ETF holdings this year is crucial for gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by early next year [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The strongest bullish scenario for gold prices would arise from significant deterioration in U.S. labor market data, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which would lead to increased demand for gold ETFs and a substantial price reaction [11]. - The evolution of inflation and labor dynamics will be critical in determining the intensity of the gold market's response, with the most significant reactions expected from evident weakness in U.S. employment data [10]. - The market currently assigns a 63% probability to a rate cut in September, with expectations of cumulative cuts of about 43 basis points by the end of 2025 [9].