【广发宏观团队】容易被忽视的本轮人民币升值

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB since April 14, with the exchange rate moving from 7.21 to 7.14, indicates a nearly 1% increase despite two rounds of USD index rebounds during the same period [1][2] - The appreciation of the RMB is synchronized with the upward trend in the equity market, driven by changes in risk premiums and domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth [2][4] - The World Bank estimates China's GDP for 2024 at $38.19 trillion, suggesting that the RMB should appreciate based on purchasing power parity, as domestic consumption has reportedly surpassed that of the US [3][4] Group 2 - The combination of improved US-Japan trade relations and strong US earnings reports has led to significant gains in global equity markets, with the S&P 500 and other indices reaching new highs [5][10] - The domestic market is experiencing improved supply-demand expectations, with infrastructure investments boosting market sentiment and contributing to RMB appreciation [5][8] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which includes a reduction in tariffs on Japanese vehicles, is expected to enhance Japan's export capacity and positively impact its stock market [10][11] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its policy rate at 2%, with President Lagarde indicating a preference to keep rates unchanged unless there is a significant deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook [12] - The US has announced an AI Action Plan aimed at accelerating innovation and establishing a global leadership position in AI technology [13] - Domestic economic indicators show a mixed picture, with actual GDP growth at 5.20% and nominal GDP growth at 3.87%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the economic recovery process [14][15] Group 4 - The domestic liquidity environment has shown significant fluctuations, influenced by risk preferences and redemption pressures in broad-based funds, leading to uncertainty in interest rate trends [16][17] - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.73%, reflecting changing expectations regarding nominal GDP and the impact of infrastructure investments [17] - The construction sector is expected to see accelerated spending in the second half of the year, as fiscal spending patterns shift [18][19] Group 5 - The agricultural sector is under scrutiny, with measures being implemented to control pig production capacity and stabilize prices, reflecting ongoing supply-side reforms [19][20] - The recent price adjustments in the agricultural sector, including a rise in pork prices, indicate a response to market conditions and regulatory measures [21][22] - The government is actively seeking to enhance consumer spending through targeted policies in various sectors, including services and tourism [19][24]