聊聊下周的6件大事

Group 1 - The most significant event next week is the third round of trade negotiations between China and the United States, which is highly anticipated globally [4][6] - Between the second round of negotiations in June and the upcoming third round, major indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and CSI 300 have seen increases of 6-7%, indicating a rise in risk appetite among investors [5] - The rare earth permanent magnet index has increased by 32%, while NVIDIA's stock has risen by 22%, highlighting the importance of trade negotiations in the context of rare earths and chips [6] Group 2 - Both China and the U.S. will hold significant meetings next week, focusing on fiscal and monetary policy adjustments [8][9] - The U.S. will see 37% of S&P 500 companies report their Q2 earnings next week, providing insights into corporate performance and outlook post-trade tensions [11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with a near-zero probability of a rate cut in July [12] Group 3 - The third batch of special long-term bonds for consumer upgrades, totaling 69 billion, is set to be issued, aligning with the annual plan of 300 billion [14] - The Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Conference over the weekend is expected to influence market sentiment, with a high likelihood of speculative trading in AI-related sectors [15][17] - The AI-related stocks have shown significant performance, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI ETF rising by 20.04% [18] Group 4 - Commodity futures experienced a sharp decline on Friday night, with several commodities dropping significantly, indicating potential market corrections [23][24] - The decline in commodity prices is attributed to trading restrictions imposed by exchanges, signaling a potential end to the recent bullish trend [25] - Recent data shows a significant increase in passive foreign capital inflow into A-shares, reaching a weekly net inflow of $1.32 billion, the highest since October of the previous year [28] Group 5 - The AH premium index has dropped to around 123, marking a new low since April 2020, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [29][31] - The downward trend in the AH premium is expected to persist for an extended period due to multiple cyclical influences [31][32]