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国泰海通|策略:势如破竹:风险偏好改善主导资产定价
国泰海通证券研究·2025-07-27 13:21

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is an adjustment in tactical asset allocation, recommending an overweight position in Chinese equities, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, a market weight in Japanese stocks, and an underweight position in government bonds [1][2][3] - The improvement in market risk appetite is driving the pricing of major asset classes, with equities outperforming safe-haven assets, indicating a preference for risk assets over bonds [1][2] - Factors supporting the performance of Chinese assets include stable total policy expectations, increased enthusiasm for technology breakthroughs and emerging industries, and a focus on capital market development by the government [2][3] Group 2 - The tactical allocation view for A-shares has been upgraded to overweight due to the high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value of Chinese equity assets [2] - The tactical allocation view for US stocks has also been upgraded to overweight, driven by improved market risk appetite and a more favorable outlook on US trade policies following the US-Japan tariff agreement [2][3] - The tactical allocation view for Japanese stocks has been adjusted to market weight, as concerns over Japan's export trade have decreased, although inflationary pressures remain a consideration [3] Group 3 - The tactical allocation view for government bonds has been downgraded to underweight due to multiple factors including improved market risk appetite and ongoing redemption pressures, which are expected to negatively impact bond prices [3]