【重卡6月月报】内销出口均向好

Key Points - The article highlights that June sales in the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations in terms of production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports [2][11][28] - The industry is experiencing a structural shift with significant growth in new energy heavy trucks while natural gas heavy trucks are declining [2][39] Industry Overview - Production and Sales: In June, heavy truck production reached 98,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 16.9% and 28.0% respectively. Wholesale sales also reached 98,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.1% and a month-on-month increase of 10.2%. Terminal sales were 69,000 units, up 47.0% year-on-year and 9.7% month-on-month. Exports totaled 29,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.8% and a month-on-month increase of 10.5% [2][10][28] - Inventory Levels: The total industry inventory is currently at 144,000 units, which is considered a reasonable level. Channel inventory decreased by 60 units, while enterprise inventory increased by 10 units [2][29] Structural Changes - New Energy Trucks: Sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 18,000 units in June, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 159% and 19.3% respectively. The penetration rate for new energy trucks is now 25.9%, up 11.2% year-on-year [2][39] - Natural Gas Trucks: In contrast, sales of natural gas heavy trucks fell to 13,500 units, down 16.8% year-on-year and 3.5% month-on-month. The penetration rate for natural gas trucks is 19.5%, down 14.9% year-on-year [2][39] Market Share Dynamics - Domestic Market Share: As of June 2025, the market shares for major domestic manufacturers are as follows: Jiefang 19.8%, Dongfeng 21.1%, Heavy Truck 16.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.1%, and Foton 13.4%. Compared to the full year of 2024, Jiefang's share decreased by 3.9%, while Foton's increased by 3.0% [3][12] - Export Market Share: In terms of exports, the shares for Jiefang, Dongfeng, Heavy Truck, Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and Foton are 17.2%, 13.3%, 42.7%, 15.5%, and 7.3% respectively. Jiefang's share decreased by 1.9% compared to 2024, while Dongfeng's increased by 4.3% [3][57] Engine Market Dynamics - Engine Market Share: In June, the market shares for major engine manufacturers were as follows: Weichai 17.9%, Cummins 17.3%, Xichai 15.1%, Heavy Truck 9.2%, and Yuchai 13.9%. Weichai's share decreased by 9.6% compared to 2024 [4][65] - Fuel Type Distribution: Weichai's market share for diesel and natural gas engines is 15.4% and 49.0% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% for diesel and 10.4% for natural gas [4][72] Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a positive outlook for the heavy truck sector driven by the implementation of National IV policies. Recommended stocks include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A/H and Weichai Power, with a focus on the performance improvement potential of Jiefang and Foton [5][78]