投资前瞻：本轮行情能否演化为全面牛市？

Economic Developments - China and the US will hold economic talks from July 27 to July 30 in Sweden, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng [1] - The July PMI data will be released on July 31, with June's manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 31, with expectations to maintain the current rates, while a potential rate cut may occur in September [3] Regulatory Changes - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, aiming to integrate stablecoins into the traditional financial system while preventing market speculation [4] - The "Regulations on the Sharing of Government Data" will be implemented starting August 1, 2025, establishing a framework for data management and sharing [14] - The "Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Management Measures for Precious Metals and Gemstone Practitioners" will also take effect on August 1, requiring reporting for cash transactions over 100,000 RMB [15] Trade Negotiations - The EU and the US trade negotiations are intensifying as the August 1 deadline approaches, with ongoing disputes over tariffs on steel, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals [5] - The US will impose a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada starting August 1, citing issues related to fentanyl and unfair trade practices [8] - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the US will also take effect on August 1, highlighting the strategic importance of copper in technology and defense [9] Corporate Earnings - Major US tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, are set to release their earnings reports next week [10] Agricultural Policy - A new policy to boost agricultural product consumption has been announced, with 23 specific measures aimed at enhancing online sales and promoting e-commerce in agriculture [12] Market Insights - The current market conditions suggest a potential shift towards a broader bull market, contingent on improvements in the underlying economic fundamentals [34] - Recommendations include increasing allocations to the Hang Seng Tech Index and focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and gaming [35] Stock Unlocking Events - A total of 52 companies will have their locked shares released this week, amounting to 3.385 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 102.679 billion RMB [24] - The peak unlocking day is July 28, with significant releases from companies like BGI (31.025 billion RMB) and Shanghai Airport (14.216 billion RMB) [24][25]