张瑜：看股做债→股债反转——居民存款搬家“三支箭”的研究脉络

Core Viewpoint - The core contradiction in China's macroeconomic landscape in recent years is the relationship between residents' savings and spending, which influences economic circulation, monetary policy, and the relationship between stocks and bonds, referred to as the "three arrows" [2] Group 1: Changes in Residents' Savings - Residents' savings are transitioning from "excessive saving" to "normal saving" and then to "spending," indicating an improvement in economic circulation [2][10] - The shift in residents' savings will likely lead to a pulse-like movement in non-bank deposits, which could drive asset prices up rapidly [3] - The increase in non-bank deposits, viewed as "under-allocated" funds, has the potential to push asset prices higher [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - As residents begin to spend their savings, the necessity for monetary policy to remain loose diminishes, allowing for a tighter monetary stance [4][14] - The transition from saving to spending by residents will likely reduce the need for further monetary easing by the central bank, especially if it leads to improved corporate profits and investment [13][14] Group 3: Stock and Bond Market Dynamics - The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift towards favoring stocks as residents' spending increases, leading to a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [16][17] - The current environment suggests that stocks are becoming more attractive compared to bonds, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks relative to bonds [18] - The divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds indicates a significant recovery in the attractiveness of equity investments [18]