深度 | 国内商品热潮，开始还是尾声？【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Group 1 - The current surge in commodity prices is primarily driven by sentiment, supply-side policies, and major infrastructure projects, with a notable "people's desire to rise" mentality emerging as prices hit lows in Q2 [1][4][5] - Supply-side policies aimed at curbing "involution" have been implemented, leading to production limits and price stabilization in industries such as photovoltaics, coal, and pork, which have contributed to price recovery [5][6] - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River Super Hydropower Station, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan and a capacity of 60 million kilowatts, has acted as a catalyst for the recent price increases in the commodity market [6][7] Group 2 - The current commodity price increase is more sentiment-driven than based on fundamentals, with domestic futures prices rising while international prices for copper and oil remain relatively stable [2][11] - There is a significant correlation between commodity futures prices and corporate earnings, leading to a "futures-stock resonance" as investors engage in both markets simultaneously [2][12] - The divergence in basis between different commodity categories indicates that some, like polysilicon and coking coal, are more influenced by trader expectations than current fundamentals, while others, like caustic soda and coke, show a greater risk of price correction [2][13] Group 3 - Future price movements may see opportunities for recovery in commodities that have experienced significant declines, such as alumina, soda ash, and industrial silicon, while those with larger price increases may face greater correction risks [3][15][16] - The assessment of future trends should consider the timing of futures contract expirations, the effectiveness of policy implementations, and the fundamental catalysts for each commodity [3][19] - Without significant improvements in demand, relying solely on supply-side measures to sustain high price levels may not be feasible in the long term [3][19]