沿着阻力最小的方向？（国金宏观赵宏鹤）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that "anti-involution" does not equate to "price increases to reduce capacity," highlighting the need for coordinated reform involving central and local governments as well as the judicial system [1][3]. Group 1: Minimum Resistance Direction - The principle of "minimum resistance" suggests that both physical laws and human behavior tend to follow the path of least resistance, which is reflected in capital markets [3]. - The recent central economic work conference's focus on "comprehensive rectification of involution-style competition" aligns with key reform tasks outlined in previous meetings, indicating a systematic approach to reform that requires multi-party participation [3][4]. - In the context of the market, upstream industries are seen as the path of least resistance for engaging in the "anti-involution" theme, as they are characterized by high state-owned enterprise ratios and high industry concentration, making them more amenable to policy implementation [4]. Group 2: Reform Path - Achieving optimal results necessitates overcoming various resistances, which is inherent to the reform process [5]. - The causes of involution-style competition are complex and involve systemic factors beyond mere price competition, as evidenced by the significant growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar power, despite declining profit margins [6][9]. - Comprehensive rectification of involution requires a dual approach addressing both symptoms and root causes, necessitating collaboration among central ministries, local governments, and the judicial system [6][7]. Group 3: Key Focus Areas for Reform - The reform aims to address disordered price competition and unfair practices that threaten high-quality industry development, particularly in sectors closely linked to local government actions [9]. - Specific industries targeted for reform include traditional sectors like steel and cement, as well as emerging industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and e-commerce platforms, which are currently experiencing severe competition [9][10]. - The article stresses that "anti-involution" should not be simplistically viewed as merely increasing prices or reducing capacity, but rather as a catalyst for improving product quality and profitability in relevant industries [11].