【广发宏观王丹】聚焦再平衡，关注“供需比”：2025年中期中观环境展望

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic changes since the "924" policy, highlighting a recovery in actual growth followed by marginal slowdown, with GDP growth rates fluctuating above 5% in 2024 and 2025, driven by strong performance in manufacturing, retail, real estate, and IT services, while some sectors like construction and finance are lagging behind [1][16]. Group 1: Economic Growth and GDP Composition - Actual GDP growth has transitioned from "central repair to marginal slowdown," with GDP growth rates of 4.6% and 4.7% in Q2 and Q3 of 2024, respectively, and stabilizing at 5.4% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][16]. - The manufacturing sector has seen a significant acceleration in growth, with a 1.0 percentage point increase compared to Q3 2024, while construction and finance sectors have experienced declines [17]. - The demand side shows differentiation, with strong exports and policy benefits in the manufacturing and real estate sectors, while construction and financial services are underperforming due to local debt issues and weak investment [1][16]. Group 2: Price Trends and PPI - Prices have undergone a "weak recovery followed by a retraction," with PPI showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% in the first half of 2025, lower than the -2.2% average for 2024 [2][21]. - Traditional upstream industries like coal and steel have significantly contributed to the PPI decline, accounting for 66% of the drop, while emerging manufacturing sectors have shown reduced drag on PPI [22][24]. - The PPI has fluctuated, with a slight recovery expected in late 2024 and early 2025, but a subsequent decline in March 2025 indicates ongoing supply-demand imbalances [20][22]. Group 3: Corporate Profitability - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises have seen a year-on-year decline of 1.1% in the first five months of 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of negative growth [24][25]. - Profit growth is uneven across sectors, with equipment, non-ferrous metals, and essential consumer goods leading, while sectors like coal and automotive are struggling [24][26]. - The impact of pricing on costs is evident, with falling coal prices benefiting the electricity sector, while the overall profit margins remain constrained by weak demand and pricing pressures [24][25]. Group 4: Inventory Trends - Nominal finished goods inventory has shown weak trends since hitting a low in July 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.1%, 3.3%, and 3.5% expected at the end of 2023, 2024, and May 2025, respectively [28][29]. - Certain industries, particularly upstream mining and non-ferrous metals, face potential inventory reduction pressures, while most other sectors are at historically low inventory levels [28][29]. Group 5: Investment and Policy Directions - The government is expected to stabilize household balance sheets and profits through policies supporting real estate, employment, and service consumption, with a focus on essential consumption sectors like agriculture and fisheries [40][41]. - Investment in infrastructure is projected to increase, particularly in water conservancy and urban renewal projects, with significant growth rates noted in central-led investments [44][45]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to support technological innovation and consumption, with a focus on urban infrastructure and public safety projects [46][48].