巩固市场，回稳向好：申万期货早间评论-20250728

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to consolidate the market's stabilization and improvement by enhancing the investment value of listed companies and implementing major asset restructuring management measures [1] - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of cultivating long-term capital and promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, alongside reforms in public funds and private equity [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China clarifies its stance on issues such as "overcapacity" and industrial subsidies, highlighting the complementary nature of China-EU economic relations [1] Group 2 - The US stock indices rose, with a market turnover of 1.82 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 6.097 billion yuan to 1.928369 trillion yuan [2] - The banking sector has performed well since 2025, and the proportion of medium- and long-term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which will help reduce stock market volatility [2] - A-share investment is considered to have high value, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 benefiting from more supportive policies, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are seen as having defensive value in the current macro environment [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron production increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks, while coke production also improved [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, continuing a four-week upward trend, while the inventory of coking coal mines has decreased to 3.3907 million tons [3] - There are expectations for policy support, and coal supply may continue to be restricted ahead of the September 3 military parade, indicating potential for further price increases [3] Group 4 - Lithium carbonate prices have surged due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing and demand remaining strong [4] - The core contradiction in the lithium market is focused on warehouse inventory, with expectations of price strength in the short term driven by "anti-involution" policies [4] - New production capacity continues to come online, but there are concerns about the potential negative feedback from slowing terminal sales on upstream supply [4] Group 5 - In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to May, while the equipment manufacturing sector saw rapid profit growth [6] - The profit of the black metal smelting and rolling industry increased by 13.7 times year-on-year in the first half of the year, while the mining industry saw a profit decline of 30.3% [6] Group 6 - The chairman of the China Listed Companies Association emphasized the need for production limits in the photovoltaic industry to stabilize prices and maintain profitability [7] - The successful experiences of cement consolidation and high profitability cycles in electrolytic aluminum are suggested as references for the struggling photovoltaic sector [7]