Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved from initial industry self-discipline to a comprehensive policy system that includes supply-side reforms, a unified national market, and factor market reforms, benefiting industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, agriculture, and cyclical goods [1] Group 1: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing supply-side reforms under strict policy constraints, leading to a shift from crude expansion to technology-driven high-quality competition [8][9] - Price stabilization reflects the positive impact of anti-involution measures on alleviating supply excess and enhancing profitability [8] - The industry is undergoing a technological iteration that accelerates market reshuffling, with BC technology leading the transition [8] Group 2: Automobiles - The automotive sector's anti-involution requires higher-level solutions, with companies leveraging technological differentiation to break through market saturation [9] - Consumer diversification is crucial, with brands and products serving as key factors to escape the cycle of internal competition [9][11] Group 3: Agriculture - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is optimizing supply through anti-involution policies, reducing disorderly expansion, and enhancing profitability stability [15][18] - The second quarter saw a slight increase in the breeding stock, indicating a rationalization of production capacity under policy constraints [15][18] Group 4: Cyclical Goods and Materials - The anti-involution policy is driving supply-side contraction and supply-demand rebalancing in the energy and materials sectors, creating opportunities for price elasticity and profitability recovery [19][21] - The cement industry exemplifies the implementation of anti-involution through capacity disposal policies, addressing overproduction issues and aligning with macro policies [22][24][27] Group 5: Macro and Strategy - The current anti-involution policy focuses on "reducing capital expenditure" to achieve capacity clearance, with effects expected to be delayed but lasting [28] - The investment focus for the second half of the year should be on supply-side optimization areas, such as new photovoltaic technologies, emotional premium in automobiles, high-quality pig farming enterprises, and cyclical goods with price elasticity [29]
【脱水研报】把握“反内卷”政策下的跨行业投资机遇
申万宏源研究·2025-07-28 06:31