投资红利策略不能只看股息率

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in dividend rates and the implications for investment strategies, emphasizing that dividend yield should not be the sole basis for investment decisions due to the potential unsustainability of high dividend payouts [3][4][11]. Group 1: Dividend Rate Analysis - There has been a notable increase in dividend rates, with the rolling dividend rates for indices such as the CSI Dividend, CSI Low Volatility Dividend, and CSI Bank Index rising significantly from historical averages of 33.41%, 32.51%, and 26.39% to 48.32%, 49.63%, and 43.08% respectively [11]. - The calculation of dividend rate is defined as the ratio of dividends to net profit, and a method to derive it from price-to-earnings (P/E) and dividend yield is provided [7][12]. Group 2: Sustainability of High Dividend Yields - Relying on increased dividend rates to maintain high dividend yields is questioned, as excessive dividend payouts can hinder a company's reinvestment capabilities and affect long-term profitability [13][14]. - The current high dividend yield levels are attributed to short-term increases in dividend rates, making historical comparisons less relevant [14][15]. Group 3: Importance of Earnings Sustainability - The focus should shift back to the sustainability of earnings as the foundation for dividends, especially since many companies in dividend strategies are in mature stages with low or stagnant growth [17]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio becomes a critical reference point for evaluating dividend strategies, with current P/E ratios for CSI Dividend and Low Volatility Dividend being at high percentiles compared to historical data [18][19].