【招银研究】积极因素继续共振，风险偏好全面回暖——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.07.28-08.01）

Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The US economy is showing signs of recovery with a shift towards a more accommodative fiscal stance, as evidenced by a weekly fiscal deficit of $21.6 billion in week 29, and a projected deficit space exceeding $500 billion for Q3 [2] - Employment data indicates a significant improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, marking a seasonal low and suggesting a stable unemployment rate [2] - Trade negotiations between the US and Japan, as well as the EU, have made progress, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and the EU agreeing to procure $750 billion in US energy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market experienced fluctuations influenced by two main factors: Trump's pressure on Powell for rate cuts and the positive signals from US-Japan trade agreements, leading to a rise in US stocks by 1.06% [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with a focus on short to medium-term US Treasury bonds as interest rates are projected to remain elevated [3] - The dollar's performance will be influenced by rate cut expectations and trade negotiations, with a forecast of low volatility in the short term [3] Group 3: China Economic Indicators - China's exports showed resilience in July, with container throughput averaging 6.54 million TEUs and cargo throughput at 26.236 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0% and 11.6% respectively [7] - Domestic demand is mixed, with strong growth in automobile retail sales, averaging 48,000 units per day in July, while real estate transactions are declining, with new home sales down 20.8% year-on-year [7][8] - Industrial profits in June remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to May [8] Group 4: Policy and Strategy Outlook - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address internal and external pressures, with a focus on maintaining a 5% growth target and emphasizing policies to boost domestic demand [9] - The market sentiment is improving, driven by supply-side policies and demand-side expectations, with a notable increase in risk appetite reflected in the stock market [10] - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, while the long-term outlook for bonds remains bullish due to ongoing low interest rates [11]